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城市设计
合肥市创新人群非通勤活动决策影响因素的非线性影响研究
傅辰昊 叶蔚然 刘润芝 李诗语 张轶民
A Nonlinear Impact Study on the Influencing Factors of Decision-making of Innovative groups’ Non-commuting Activity in Hefei, China
Chenhao Fu, Weiran Ye, Runzhi Liu, Shiyu Li, Yimin Zhang
摘要 非通勤出行的增加是衡量城市高质量发展的重要指标之一,尤其对收入较高但可支配时间有限的创新人群而言, 他们对满足其高品质、多样化非通勤活动的服务设施的需求更为迫切。本研究以内陆快速发展的创新型城市合肥 为例,在分析创新人群非通勤活动类型特征的基础上,运用随机森林模型与SHAP模型探究居民非通勤活动决策 的影响因素,探讨出行特征、建成环境和社会经济属性对非通勤活动决策的作用机制。研究发现:(1)创新人 群的非通勤活动分为家庭照料类和闲暇时间类两类,并以闲暇类为主,其活动特征、人群特征及其建成环境均有 所差异;(2)出行特征对不同创新人群进行非通勤活动类型决策的影响最大,居住地建成环境的作用其次,社 会经济属性最不显著;(3)具体到各个因子,建成环境类变量中显著因子的数量最多,且与非通勤活动决策之 间的关系兼具线性和非线性。出行特征类变量数量较少但相对重要性最高,且以非线性为主。而社会经济属性以 线性为主且重要性排序均靠后。研究成果从理论上深化对创新人群非通勤活动出行的理解,揭示变量的非线性作 用机理,在实践上为帮助创新人群实现生活品质提升、促进内陆城市创新发展提供规划指引和政策参考。
关键词 非通勤活动非线性影响创新人群机器学习合肥    
Abstract:The increase in non-commuting trips is an important indicator of a city’s high-quality development, especially for the innovative population with high income but limited disposable time. They have a more urgent need for service facilities that meet their requirements for high-quality and diverse non-commuting activities. This study, taking Hefei, one of rapidly developing innovative cities in the interior, as an example, based on the perspective of activity types, explores the influencing factors of residents’ non-commuting activity decisions by analyzing the characteristics of innovative people when they engage in different types of non-commuting activities and using the random forest model and SHAP model. It also investigates the mechanism of the impact of travel characteristics, built environment, and socio-economic attributes on non-commuting activity decisions. The research findings are as follows: (1) The non-commuting activities of the innovative population can be divided into two categories: family care and leisure time, with the latter being the main type. Their activity characteristics, population characteristics, and built environment are all different. (2) The travel characteristics of different innovative talents when they engage in non-commuting activities have the greatest impact on their decision-making for non-commuting activity types, followed by the built environment of their residence, and socio-economic attributes have the least significant impact. (3) Specifically, among the built environment variables, the number of significant factors is the largest, and there are both linear and non-linear relationships with non-commuting activity decisions. The number of travel characteristic variables is relatively small, but their relative importance is the highest, and they are mainly non-linear. Socio-economic attributes are mainly linear and their importance rankings are all at the back. The research results will deepen the theoretical understanding of the non-commuting activities of the innovative population and reveal the non-linear mechanism of variables. In practice, the research will provide planning guidance and policy references for helping the innovative population improve their quality of life and promoting the innovative development of inland cities.
Key wordsNon-commuting activities    Non-linear impact    Innovative groups    Machine learning    Hefei
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